The year 2024 saw a gradual bifurcation of the now inactive monarchy-reform movement.
Not only have they lost some supports from those who are now supporting the Pheu Thai government, some key former leaders of the movement who have been charged under the lese majeste law, granted bail, then jumped bail, and fled into exile abroad are expressing more republican sentiments while others in Thailand continue to call for a reform.
The mixed message will further weaken public support of the movement as they have been accused of habouring a hidden agenda of in fact not wanting to reform the monarchy institution but to eventually overthrow the monarchy to establish a Thai Republic or confederate.
In December, a key figure at Ratsadorn Prasong Fund, which monetarily assists those who have been politically prosecuted and jailed since the May 2014 coup, including those charged under the lese majeste law, admitted to Prachaitai online news that public donations has dried up because some are now supporting the Pheu Thai government, while substantial sum advanced by the group were confiscated by the court as more of those who were charged under the lese majeste law jumped bail and fled into exile.
This is a proof that all is not well in the movement.
Detained monarchy reform movement co-leaders like Arnon Nampa, who is currently serving a combined 18 years of jail term (and could be sentenced to additional prison term as there are other lese majeste cases in the pipeline) is still relatively popular and active on Facebook via a representative who kept his FB account active. But Arnon’s FB page has repeatedly been soliciting for more and more donations to buy better food as more than thirty political detainees continue to languish in jail.
Meanwhile, the main opposition People’s Party has been rather quiet on the issue after its former leaders were banned from politics, and the party, previously known as Move Forward Party dissolved by the Charter Court, for pledging to reform the royal defamation law.
Come 2025, the confusion will continue as long as the movement in general sends mixed messages as to whether they in fact seek to reform or reject the monarchy. It’s natural that members of this loosely-formed movement will have different views and political stance on the issue but as long as their perceived identity on their true intention continues to be murky – a mix of monarchy reformists and anti-monarchists, it will then be hard for them to expect to gain broader support from the general public.
Perhaps a clear separation, or at least distinction between them, will enable the general public to decide whether they want to support them, or continue to support them, or not.
A gradual bifurcation of reformists vis-à-vis republicans may not be a bad thing for Thais as they can then deliberate and decide on where they stand on the issue.
To be fair, it’s unconstitutional and illegal to advocate for turning the Kingdom of Thailand into a republic, and those making it are mostly abroad in exile. Even calling for reform of the monarchy is a slippery slope as some now detained under the lese majeste law have discovered the hard way.
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